Running Bear's October 2022 Coffee Shop


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Chilly 47° this morning, cloudy until this afternoon when the temps go to a balmy 64°. Got errands this morning, so I'll be playing outside later. I do need to be careful as I do put chemicals on the front lawn to keep the weeds down. Although today's mowing should be fine as I haven't put down anything since spring.

Post more later.
 
Well, howdy there internet MRR peeps,

It's Troy again, from deep inside the coof bunker, still hunkering in the basement

Other than a slight headache overnight, I feel fine. Wife let me up to share a pizza from Dominos with her last night. We kept a window open by the table (it was a chilly window. Need one that points to 70° weather. All of our windows seem to point to chilly fall right now).

got my chapter finished yesterday, and I'm about to dive into a new chapter today. the words must be worded by Halloween on this book. then it's off to my reserved spot with the editor.

I'm missing a game convention this weekend in Dayton OH with the HMGS (Historical Miniatures Gaming Society. Ah well. Don't want to spread the coof.

Currently 33° f. Hight today in the mid-50s. We'll have a few days next week try to hit the 70s. After that we should be downhill for a while.

Still working on painting my undead for the gaming table.
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No. This is wrong. Not the facts about the pipeline, but about the effects on its cancellation.

Oil trades on sentiment* short and medium term. On the economics of it medium and long term. By canceling the pipeline, he who shall not be named emphasized the "war on fossil fuels" and their desire to make them more expensive to make them go away. This emphasized and underscored the opposition to petroleum which greatly affects sentiment. Also, oil prices are based on future costs and supply (this is the medium and long term thing I mention above) so the knowledge that it is canceled forces people to have to find other options or pay the price since they cannot plan on and count on it being there.

The cancelation has had no direct consequence on oil prices since it wouldn't have been operational yet. But it had a HUGE effect on sentiment and also on future capacity/supply pricing.


* trading on sentiment: For example, a war breaks out in the Middle East, even if it is in a country not one of the major suppliers (not gifted with black gold -- not all of them are), oil prices will tend to jump immediately, even though the countries involved are not suppliers and there has been ZERO effect on oil supply. There are a lot of other examples of sentiment based trading on the short and medium term where sentiment affects the price, not supply or demand or anything.

This is a popular viewpoint, but I don't think I buy it, at least not in its entirety. You left out that little war in the Ukraine for example, which had a huge impact on demand. I think oil trades much more on demand than sentiment, though speculators can drive up prices in the short term. Then there was the pandemic. When demand dropped off the supply was cut drastically. Wells were capped, crews were laid off, development of new fields dropped off, etc, etc, etc. You don't get all that back by flipping a switch. Then there's investor pressure. The number one reason supply wasn't ramped back up immediately was investor pressure. Stockholders really liked those fat profits and it was a really neat way to recoup the losses caused by the pandemic, wasn't it? Even the oil companies admitted to this ;) That pipeline was a tremendously unpopular project that went in and out of favor several times over the years, and the oil it was to transport didn't vanish, it just gets to market by truck or rail, or other pipelines instead. This "war on fossil fuels" thing reminds me of the "war on Christmas". Really good at stirring up outrage, but not much when it comes to substance. You know, eventually we will run out of oil. Not for a while yet, but it's going to happen. One faction wants to prepare for that. The other wants to "drill baby drill". Which is the best long term solution? I'll bet you that the folks who made horse drawn wagons, buggy whips, and related equipment had lots to say about the horseless carriage back in the day too. Here we are. 🤷‍♂️ That pipeline was a very small piece of a very large puzzle. Its impact is very much overrated. It does make a great talking point though.
 
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Morning all. The temp dipped below freezing last night. Our furnace crapped out yesterday, well actually the day before, and it got just a bit chilly in the house. Luckily we have a regular furnace guy, so I didn't have to beg a stranger for a service call. Turned out to be a bad control board. Probably made in China. 🤷‍♂️ Turns out somebody somewhere figured out that if you cut the amount of solder used in assembling these things you can cut costs. The expansion and contraction in the furnace eventually gets to the solder joints and things start to happen, or in my case not happen. He came right out and had her humming in about an hour. Our house is 20 years old this year and I was sweating out the possibility of having to buy a new furnace, but I'm told I can get another 10 or so years out of this one. Wish I could get that out of a hot water heater. I'm on my third one of those. Heading off to New Orleans tomorrow for my industry's national trade show. First one since Covid. Good seafood. Gonna get me some crawdad's!

Tested the Overland again Thursday. Got some more head end cars into the train. Still a few bugs in her. Some coupler issues and one car that wants to randomly derail. Keeps things interesting!

 
Good morning to the on the edgers, gardeners, window openers to eat pizza in cold weather, pellet users, backhoe searchers, army of the dead and rail modelers. My part of Wisconsin like Troy-Bilts, ForttWayne is also 33f degrees moving to low 50’s. There is a coating of frost on the grass on the north side of the house.

Terry asked after we reviewed the offer on the house if we really should sell? Where the heck did that come from? She’s the one who wants out, the house is too big! Hopefully that was our monthly disagreement out of the way already. No luck yesterday because of that! We countered the house offer. That’s part of the game…

Oil, my take is, it’s not political it’s greed taking advantage world wide of situations. It’s also called capitalism and part of life as we know it. There has always been an elite wealthy class, it’s no different now. Because of mass media we are just much more aware of the differences in social classes

How to combat inflation and idle workforces. The military industrial complex gets ramped up then men and women die. It’s called history, look it up. 31 trillion in debt, how do you eliminate that? inflation…

The UW Badger Women’s hockey won last night and it was great to be there.

Today is unsure, I know we have another Badger Hockey game at 6 tonight, normal is 7. So dinner most likely will be out before the game.

I started yesterday, I have decreed that I will spend 1 hour at least working on the layout daily in October.

There are more items to weather today. Of the 9 I am doing 4 are done, 3 need a closer inspection and maybe done and 2 are getting close. I am slow because I enjoy and savor the process, plus we have been gone a lot.
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Enjoy the day
 
Morning all. The temp dipped below freezing last night. Our furnace crapped out yesterday, well actually the day before, and it got just a bit chilly in the house. Luckily we have a regular furnace guy, so I didn't have to beg a stranger for a service call. Turned out to be a bad control board. Probably made in China. 🤷‍♂️ Turns out somebody somewhere figured out that if you cut the amount of solder used in assembling these things you can cut costs. The expansion and contraction in the furnace eventually gets to the solder joints and things start to happen, or in my case not happen. He came right out and had her humming in about an hour. Our house is 20 years old this year and I was sweating out the possibility of having to buy a new furnace, but I'm told I can get another 10 or so years out of this one. Wish I could get that out of a hot water heater. I'm on my third one of those. Heading off to New Orleans tomorrow for my industry's national trade show. First one since Covid. Good seafood. Gonna get me some crawdad's!

Tested the Overland again Thursday. Got some more head end cars into the train. Still a few bugs in her. Some coupler issues and one car that wants to randomly derail. Keeps things interesting!

Good that the furnace guy was available. Enjoy New Orleans a city I really really loved in my 20’s, 30’s and 40’s then I got old! We were there last year and the food still is incredible. Have a shrimp or 2 for me. Enjoy your crawdads
 
Hopefully they will contact you,on your page discuss the problem so people who have you added get the update and can then feed back in, over the years I have twice lost loads of computer kit, I went back to old fashioned diaries as back up, tedious but when I need something I can go scout through and find contact details or passwords or whatever old fashioned but easier, I notice that my iCloud that holds my pictures snuggles to bring up old pictures that I know exist, and I am considering an old dump on to sticks or even some old empty cds as back up, I keep my original video cassettes even tho backed onto cds, pack squirrel maybe and the books need 2 really useful boxes, but when technology glitches it is painful I remover one of the losses meant I lost a lot of pictures of the kids when I first went digital,we never throw away old hard disks either, not that we own crypto or anything but why not.
As I wrote yesterday, the pictures are back. Then I made acceptable adjustments to my contact list. The repair folks said it was a raid issue, one not talking to another. Sounded like a bad marriage but I think the tech was trying to hide the fact they don’t know why it happened and figured the techo language would overwhelm me and I’d say fine. It was under warranty so I have a feeling this wasn’t the 1st time for them.
 
Then there's investor pressure. The number one reason supply wasn't ramped back up immediately was investor pressure. Stockholders really liked those fat profits and it was a really neat way to recoup the losses caused by the pandemic, wasn't it?
This "war on fossil fuels" thing reminds me of the "war on Christmas". Really good at stirring up outrage, but not much when it comes to substance.
Well now, we have found common ground here on both talking points. The cause of much of our collective concern is point 1. (Investor Pressure), and the way to distract us from Point 1 is to arouse Righteous Indignation, (Point 2 - stirring up meaningless outrage). Throw in our propensity to see a conspiracy under every partisan rock and there is a lot food for fear and loathing.

My cynicism views all of this as pure BS, but that raises the issue where I have this habit of innocently crossing some invisible line and become offensive, mainly because in spite of the "polish" of my university education, I'm really just another crude, deplorable, blue collar slob railroad guy...:rolleyes:

Such is our lot in life.
 
Good morning, a frosty 30 at 6f am, off to the hardware store then later today headed for Osceola where were taking the scenic train , will be eating lunch there and looking around town,

Alan, I like your video, Wife liked the train horn

Patrick - high of 64 here as well!

here is what it looked like a half hour ago

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we have lots of golds, light frost

took this shot this morning, Groningen main street just about finished

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Been working on the water, this area just about completed, is the St. Croix river on MN WI border, south of Grantsburg WI

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back tomorrow, have a great day!

Dave LASM
 
Well now, we have found common ground here on both talking points. The cause of much of our collective concern is point 1. (Investor Pressure), and the way to distract us from Point 1 is to arouse Righteous Indignation, (Point 2 - stirring up meaningless outrage). Throw in our propensity to see a conspiracy under every partisan rock and there is a lot food for fear and loathing.

My cynicism views all of this as pure BS, but that raises the issue where I have this habit of innocently crossing some invisible line and become offensive, mainly because in spite of the "polish" of my university education, I'm really just another crude, deplorable, blue collar slob railroad guy...:rolleyes:

Such is our lot in life.
Yeah, well we have even more common ground than you think Boris. I don't suffer fools gladly and have a very low tolerance for BS which has cost me in my professional life. I get pretty cynical too, but I have some hope. Some weeks ago I got into a discussion with a group of fellows who leaned much further right than I do. We kept it civil and when it was over I had (I think) made them realize that we weren't as far apart as we are often told if we can shut off the TV and tune out the people telling us to hate the other guy. That whole "take a deep breath" thing works!
 
Good Morning All. Partly cloudy and 62°. Change in the weather forecast, as they have added rain into the forecast for this morning. Wasn't there yesterday; I wonder if it has anything to do with the extensive line of showers 25 miles away across the Red River in Oklahoma? Doesn't look like anything heavy and may not do our landscape any good.

On to the recent action by OPEC. These guys are pissed. They relented earlier this summer and slowly provided more oil. Then several nations opened up their strategic reserves and undercut the price that they were getting. They felt double-crossed and took the recent action of cutting back to get the price back.

Thanks for the likes ad comments regarding the latest project; James, Todd, Guy, Dave B, Tom O, Smudge, Chad, Christian, Hughie, Louis, Chet, Patrick, Gary, Rick, George, Tom.

I found some time to go out in the train shed yesterday, and added ground cover between the 7-11 and the Gemini Building.
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A little history and a closer look at the Gemini Building. This structure is over 27 years old and is the first structure that I attempted to put an interior into. The whole thing is a bit crude, but I still like the look. Things to note: The sidewalk out front is simply sheet styrene with pencil lines, since I made it either before I saw it or before Evergreen made sidewalk material. The walls too are just painted styrene.
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The appliances in the appliance shop side are just small blocks of wood painted white with pencil lines on them.
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The soft drink machine is a red painted block, decorated with a cut out sign and a Sharpie marker. Hard to see the fan belts hanging on the wall behind the counter in Sparky's, but they're there.
In retrospect, I didn't need to detail the stairway between the two stores as it's not visible, but if I add a light, it might show up. I thought that I had originally put a man behind the counter in Sparky's, but he seems to be MIA, or I forgot to put him in there. I'll look for a suitable person today. All figures are hand-painted Preiser figures since I couldn't afford pre-painted ones back then.

Guy - Nice progress on the scene. Like some others posted, your spell-check seems like it is on UK English. Love your forest pictures.
Chet - Continued best wishes on the shoulder recovery. Thanks for the update on Sherrel.
Jaz - I like your analogy of cryptocurrency to the Emperor's new clothes.
Dave B - Enjoy your trip and be safe.

Everybody have a great Saturday.
 
Hi again!
Finally got my cell and computer in the same location. Here are pix of Roundhouse Trains in Louisville. I did not go into the back rooms where there are boxes and shelves of stuff, all scales. I will leave that to the folks that decide to explore. Make them big if you wish.
 

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Morning all. The temp dipped below freezing last night. Our furnace crapped out yesterday, well actually the day before, and it got just a bit chilly in the house. Luckily we have a regular furnace guy, so I didn't have to beg a stranger for a service call. Turned out to be a bad control board. Probably made in China. 🤷‍♂️ Turns out somebody somewhere figured out that if you cut the amount of solder used in assembling these things you can cut costs. The expansion and contraction in the furnace eventually gets to the solder joints and things start to happen, or in my case not happen. He came right out and had her humming in about an hour. Our house is 20 years old this year and I was sweating out the possibility of having to buy a new furnace, but I'm told I can get another 10 or so years out of this one. Wish I could get that out of a hot water heater. I'm on my third one of those. Heading off to New Orleans tomorrow for my industry's national trade show. First one since Covid. Good seafood. Gonna get me some crawdad's!

Tested the Overland again Thursday. Got some more head end cars into the train. Still a few bugs in her. Some coupler issues and one car that wants to randomly derail. Keeps things interesting!


I noticed a super dome car....is that a Milwaukee car in UP livery? Could you provide me information on that car? Thanks!
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Afternoon folks I am taking a break at the moment. I'm fixing to head over to my parents to help them out on some final storm cleanup. Pops got a dumpster so we are gonna fill it up. I also have a an old entertainment TV table he wants that I will deliver to them. They had to replace a 37 inch TV and pops got a 55 inch now. So he needs this table for it. I am not using it. My TVs are 105 inch and 75 inch. The big one is downstairs and the small is upstairs.


Gotta eat a slice of cold pizza then go...ttyl!

Have a good one!
 
Yeah, well we have even more common ground than you think Boris. I don't suffer fools gladly and have a very low tolerance for BS which has cost me in my professional life. I get pretty cynical too, but I have some hope. Some weeks ago I got into a discussion with a group of fellows who leaned much further right than I do. We kept it civil and when it was over I had (I think) made them realize that we weren't as far apart as we are often told if we can shut off the TV and tune out the people telling us to hate the other guy. That whole "take a deep breath" thing works!
Not for nothing, I sort of suspected that all along...;)

I'm beginning to believe that the whole "polarization" issue, is a vision of the RNC, DNC and the Media. Polarization creates awareness for party partisans, and creates ratings for media companies, which in turn generates greater advertising revenue. I'm all for shutting off the TV, and it's various hate mongers.
 
I noticed a super dome car....is that a Milwaukee car in UP livery? Could you provide me information on that car? Thanks!View attachment 153231
Thanks for noticing, and for asking! No it isn’t a Milwaukee Road car. It’s a brass car imported by Coach Yard. The SP didn’t buy any domes. They converted theirs from older Daylight cars. A few of us are begging Rapido to do them, but since only the SP had them I don’t know if that will ever happen. I painted it, decaled it, scratchbuilt an interior for it and swapped out the incorrect and crappy brass trucks for Walthers trucks which are correct for the car. It appeared in Daylight livery, UP livery, silver with the red stripe and briefly in Amtrak livery. I believe the CP got a hold of one, and possibly one went to Mexico.
 
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