Running Bear's October 2022 Coffee Shop


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I thought this site was non-political? I've started to get all sorts of political ads (instead of ladies underwear, cars, and the like)...

Anyway, up early again, but not as early as yesterday, to take my daughter to her HS Swim Team "dryland" conditioning practice. And doing work work until my meeting in 75 minutes. AFter that the wife and I are off for a couple hours to a local church service. And then back to work work as well as an hour or so on the house with my son since he works evenings at UPS so I get his time over "lunch". Wife's day off is today so I don't pick up the daughter from school

Framers got a good start yesterday on the basement bearing walls.

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How comeYOU get ladies underwear ads,I get blokes t shirts…..
 
Add in OPEC+ meeting today.

They want the gas prices higher. So, less production coming soon.
Those desserts do not produce much incomeoncetheoilis gone they are done for, so despite what is right all they care about is getting best dollar for their oil,I see Biden can offer up some ‘sanctions’ incLUDING PULLING out US DEFENCES, THAT MIGHT MAKE THEMTHINK TWICE
 
Got home this evening, and found an early Christmas present had arrived, I'll put the contents in the RPO for those that are interested,
 

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Afternoon all,

Was a busy morning for me. Cooler temps allowed me to get this done:
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Sorry for the fuzzy right side. I took it out the bedroom window. It looked like the yard around it when I started. I've got to mow later and I'm going to work the fresh clippings in. May be a mistake, but I'll have all winter to break down. I will say it's the first time it's been that loose.

Willie: for 6 weeks the wife is 3 years older. She's taking it in January after she turns 64.
Garden!!!! This is a garden.But yes you can mix clippings in, just a little at a time. I've been doing it for years.
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I've got to mow later and I'm going to work the fresh clippings in
Add to that in a few weeks with leaves from trees. If you have a grass catcher for your mower, run over them and shred them. Tree roots go deep and pull nutrients from deep down. While shredded will make them decompose quicker, it's not necessary. Additional add-ins include wood ashes from fireplace/fire pits, charcoal ashes if you use charcoal, and store-bought stuff like peat moss or bagged manure. Lots of other additives that I won't get into right now.
One can't really beat a Troy-Bilt tiller except with tractor powered equipment. Although the TB225 is more of a between rows cultivator, it still works, just more slowly. Let it go as deep as it wants.
 
my biggest problem is getting to work. Once there, everything is fine. I have a nice office and desk and the people here are honest working folks.

However, I am away from home from 5:45 AM till 4:45 PM and my wife wants me home more. Impossible to move with real estate as crazy as it is, and our mortgage is only at 3.25%.

Also, the wear and tear on the car/truck is gonna cost me. It is a balancing act, however if I get into a crash with a deer or otherwise that will be the deciding factor.
My father in law who was quite the cynic used to say that the richest rigged the system so that when plain old folk got a few bucks, they drop the market so we’d have to sell whatever we put back so they could buy it for pennies on the dollar than make sure the market went back up. I throught he was a little over the top, but lately I think maybe he was onto something. 😊. Luckily I work from home, and mostly with my head, so physical stamina doesn’t enter into the picture. Are we in for still more interesting times with the market and the economy? Who knows. I once read that in the commodities market previous highs and lows are always exceeded. Maybe the stock market is the same. I guess we’ll find out!
 
Willie: Leaves aren't really falling yet, but they are on the list too mix in, along with the 4 bags of acidified cotton seed mulch, the next few mowing. My charcoal ashes have always been going into the garden. I have 80 lbs of cow manure in the shed from a few years ago, one going in now and one next spring. The cultivator is just the right size for my space.

CambriArea51: Nice garden but my city lot is just a little over a quarter acre on a cul de sac. My little "tasting plot" garden is just 9'x9'. Got to have room for the peaches and apples, blueberries got heat killed this summer.
 
My father in law who was quite the cynic used to say that the richest rigged the system so that when plain old folk got a few bucks, they drop the market so we’d have to sell whatever we put back so they could buy it for pennies on the dollar than make sure the market went back up. I throught he was a little over the top, but lately I think maybe he was onto something. 😊. Luckily I work from home, and mostly with my head, so physical stamina doesn’t enter into the picture. Are we in for still more interesting times with the market and the economy? Who knows. I once read that in the commodities market previous highs and lows are always exceeded. Maybe the stock market is the same. I guess we’ll find out!
If you read any of the numerous postmortems from the 2007 -2009 era, you would know for sure that your father in law was on to something. I wouldn't use the word rigged, but would substitute manipulated. The Bankers (loose definition), took money out of stocks and put it into oil, to drive up the price, and slow the economy, which in turn caused workers to sell their holdings at a loss to make up for lost wages from being downsized, the Bankers then bought up the securities at distressed prices...same with real estate, and other commodities. They have the resources to ride this out, normal people don't . Ultimately, they returned the money to securities and those prices recovered, then increased in value...meanwhile workers incomes stagnated for 20 years....when that started to change...wash, rinse , repeat...

I might add, that during the 20 + years after 2009, te Federal Fund rates remained at or close to 0%. They began rising just before covid appeared, when inflation in consumer prices first became noticed, and returned to 0% to combat effects of Covid on business...No one "noticed" inflation, until wages began to rise, because that's primarily what the Fed is concerned about...(Not consumer prices). During this 20 year+ period, savings and bonds earned minimal interest, leaving investment in the stock and commodities markets the only way to earn a reasonable ROI.
 
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Crypto IMO is worst then the stock markets. Government do need to get onboard to regulate and get their cut. The question is how do you regulate something that exists only in the ether? To me it’s very much a fraud thing waiting to happen.

The super rich love it but until they can show the proof that backs up the dollar amounts I refuse to get involved. Someone asked me why I didn’t help my son with his air taxi business. It’s because he is a crypto guy. If it’s so fricking great why does he need family money to help him. He has though sold off his crypto to do his air taxi bz with the help of his sister and cousin as partners. A few years ago he tried to get me into Crypto and I am not dumb, I even have a MBA but damn if I understood it then nor do I understand it now. Nor do I want to. The stock market is a crap shot that Terry is a marvel at, I suck at that too. Crypto to me is like the Commodities markets, hands off.
Investing in something that does not exist is madness, it is like the emperors new clothes at sone point someone realises it and the whole thing collapses
 
Well the network repair guys came by this afternoon and I am very unhappy. They did retrieve all the pictures as far as I can tell and happy for that, especially Terry’s stuff. But, now my contact list is completely gone and they tell me they might be able to get them back but want $$$$$ for that and no guarantee.

Gone for sure are any contacts added in 2021 and 2022, which happens to be all my weathering clients. Anything before 1/1/2021 is on a thumb drive here and I will be adding those contacts back tonight. Seems that’s about when we started experiencing backup issues that I never followed up on because I didn’t check. It just said back up completed. My fault but now I know better.

Since I basically use Facebook Messenger to communicate with clients I have no way to contact them.

James (Alcomotive) please send me a test message via FB Messenger, thanks.

I want to cry but it that won’t accomplish anything.
Hopefully they will contact you,on your page discuss the problem so people who have you added get the update and can then feed back in, over the years I have twice lost loads of computer kit, I went back to old fashioned diaries as back up, tedious but when I need something I can go scout through and find contact details or passwords or whatever old fashioned but easier, I notice that my iCloud that holds my pictures snuggles to bring up old pictures that I know exist, and I am considering an old dump on to sticks or even some old empty cds as back up, I keep my original video cassettes even tho backed onto cds, pack squirrel maybe and the books need 2 really useful boxes, but when technology glitches it is painful I remover one of the losses meant I lost a lot of pictures of the kids when I first went digital,we never throw away old hard disks either, not that we own crypto or anything but why not.
 
So I stopped once again on the way home and got theses shots. This is a bridge that crosses the Upper Hudson River in Stillwater NY. It is an old D&H line now run by CSX. I have a question for ya'll. There is a flat car LOW centerbeam with post on the outside. Grey in color road name Norfolk Southern. What is this used for? I was thinking 🤔 slabs of granite or slate I am not sure.....???


Also notice the black gondola.... Reading & Northern.....

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Beautiful colour reference love the rust tones
 
My thoughts on the economy, and length of recession...

I think we've only seen the tip of the iceberg.

I predict some sort of global conflict, as countries like China begin to collapse upon themselves, and find their only solution is to "war" their way out of financial ruin.

I fear a global military conflict a LOT more than I fear an economic depression.

History has shown that winning wars can eliminate international debt while fueling local economies as the Gov't procures necessities.
Very sad but also true, war can end debt,get rid of excess males, although Russian version of them running away is not documented as much I assume that happens too.
Everyone is concentrating on this winter, but this fuel issue is sparking a massive knock on effect.
higher fuel = well higher fuel but then leads to high harvest costs higher delivery costs higher manufacture mining growing costs higher inflation people at the financial edge striking for higher money to keep their heads above water although others just cash in which leads to higher pay and inflation, house price depression and those who rely on their houses as their primary cash source inc retirement see that melt away then recession becomes depression then unrest as more people hit poverty linked goods such as oil which are finite drop production because they can ask more money for less goods our markets are poorly linked making this happen faster and then yes someone somewhere is then so cash strapped that going to war becomes economic sense I agree I think this is the tip.
We were cash rich and have moved cash to solar energy for summer and some spring autumn and a little winter
until this year the wood burners were not economically viable and had we done it last year it would have cost less bu is what it is
so r woodburners later this month will help heating and cooking for winter some spring autumn and hopefully not summer unless the grid is down
we have our own wood supply but it needs drying, next summer we can use excess solar to help dry wood. The Tesla ev draws the solar and as we get FITs feed in tariff, production,self usage and export deemed as 50 percent production, we wanted a car and a cybertruck but the cybertruck is still a pipe dream so we order a Y, basically as a holding spot for our cash as if prices increase we did not want to pay more, and the 3 is worth a good amount traded in and if the cybertruck arrives and the European version is worth it we then have to decided which to trade in probably the y, due to shortage of ev the trade in is great in fact some people order them then sell them when they arrive making a profit! I have improved my pantry, my seed collection, we got the large polytunnel which can either grow food or dry and store wood, wood economically likely makes more sense, we have no debts, and retain a buffer zone, but the pensions have taken a whack in the last month, hopefully that will steady thank you British government not, and we invest in clothing outdoors camo inc for summer,spring,autumn, and winter down to -30 deg and wet kit, I keep a good medical kit we have both had training and I retain my old training book for back up, I can can goods, we have bees, and have goats and ducks but frankly they are an expensive luxury once we are retired they will likely drastically reduce or stop altogether, we are not in a town, we were fairly inconspicuous the solar Ararat on the roof barn sticks out like a sore thumb, but the bungalow is low lying and both my kids are unlikely to be called up, yep it worries me, I do not let it lose me sleep but I am careful, I am not a posh shoe 👠 nice handbag 👜 type of person nowadays anyway, after the ankle and knee good walking 🥾 boots are more my scene, I would not bug out I would bug in, unless a Nuke forced it, and I have rucksacks 🎒 just in case, I could obliviously read romance or sci fi but I look at self sufficiency goodies, because they have potential once we are on pensions and we then guard against things like the massive fuel costs.
Oh and EU may have seriously overpaid costs this year , drowning us all in debt in the process, to fill up the gas reserves, but the Russian fuel is now sanctioned and others as we have seen plan to cash in not provide a cheap alternative, so if this continues in any shape to next winter, it is going to be a serious disaster so plan ahead. We are thinking if push comes to shove his job collapses we have 2 EVs that can potentially be used for deliveries or taxis or whatever or a cheap means to take us to place of work.We could use the tractor to plough up the land but experienced farmers are getting hammered by the weather etc, a nice quiet easement into a safe pensionable age, yeah well I am not certain that is on the books.depressed not yet, but oblivious to a potential depression no I am not. Sticking my fingers in my ears and humming won’t help. 😞. Not building a bunker any day now, either although thinking maybe we should have when we built the extension. Sighs.
 
Garden!!!! This is a garden.But yes you can mix clippings in, just a little at a time. I've been doing it for years.View attachment 153193
We contacted arbor tree cutters, offering them a drop off point for when they were full or the journeys were long, we get a lot of dropped wood and even clippings, which is great for top mulch, we also have a man who clears out stables and he dumps the horse manure and straw here if the drive bac is ton, we leave it and spread it out hopefully killing off any nasty chemicals and then add it to the land, our own trees are allowed to leaf fall and anything hit by wind or drought that dies is allowed to rot down, the local wildlife loves us. buzzards, deer,the two ponds help, we have fox holes, a pain but we leave them in peace,pigeons and rabbits are potential 🥘 food …hell if it gets tough the squirrels might need to watch out, usually each year a flock of some thing is drawn by the bigger pond, last we had enough ducks to keep an abattoir busy. The bee hives are left to their own devices and to breed queens as we no longer eat sugar or honey, if push came to shove we have the equipment to get it,and trade it.The fruit bushes tend to feed the birds and when I get the chance I pull in the fruit off the trees for our birds,plus we chose a lot of wood that can be coppiced like willow, not the best burning wood but plentiful and cheap when it’s free,and it breaks down super easy. we do not use any chemicals ether, although the wood and manure that comes in is not likely to be chemical free
 
Good Morning All!
41F in Libby

Welp, finding a backhoe was an exercise in frustration. There are *some* new out there, not much in the used market. Trouble with new is we can not justify $30K for something that we might use every once-in-awhile. Note that we only checked in Kalispell and Columbia Falls as that was the way we went yesterday. Kuboda is 2 years out once ordered and the stuff on the dealer lot was all in process waiting for payment or other to catch up. Don't know about Kuboda as they are shotgun built from ( sometimes ) many different countries. Kuboda used to be the goto machine although as of late there are many complaints about them and parts are s-l-o-w. Mahindra can come from Russia and other eastern bloc nations of which we choose not to play. Kioti is S.Korea and the whole unit is built under 1 roof sorta speak, so that is the way we are leaning. Those are ready to go on the lot. Even though frustrated, we gained a lot of information from the sales people.

I found an older Ford 4500 with bucket and hoe in Whitefish which will do what we wish and a bunch cheaper. Trouble with that is the house is selling and the buyer may want all of the equipment too. Also found out that there could be a bundle available - Hoe, trailer and truck which would solve our problems in one fell swoop. Will know more in a week or so.

Going West on Tuesday and will check out dealers in Spokane, Sandpoint, CDA and points nearby. If we do not find anything, we will expand our looking radius and see what shakes out. As you may guess, we don't have a problem driving a few hundred miles for the right deal.

Oh, got the new igniter for the pellet stove but was too lazy to put it in last night when we got home. When I pulled the errant one, it sure looked like it was assembled in the stove upside-down from the factory. With it installed as it was, sure looks like pellets *could* get into the igniter tube which could then touch the element and who knows what would happen. Here again, a trusted name ( Breckwell ) has not done the quality control stuff correct. Brand new, I found that one of the stoves we ordered last fall would not run. Upon inspection, I found that the blower motor had wires hanging loose inside the thing. Plugged them in and we were good to go. Now ima going to check the igniters in the other stoves - pretty easy to fix, couple of bolts and rotate.

Later
 
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