Coffee Shop Part VIII

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Mornin' all!

Another dark dreary day here in the Finger Lakes this morning. Got a bit of rain and drizzle during the night. It should clear out later this morning.

Glad you enjoyed the cookies, I make some more later.

Have to drive to the other side of the county this morning to do a recording and work with a theory class at Honeoye Schools. Then i have to come back home and head over to Geneva High School to do sound for the High School Band tonight. Never knew being a deaf musician could be so much fun....

Gotta run. Coffee to go Flo!
 
Hi everyone! You all seem to be very busy today. Guess I need to go get a haircut and make a shopping stop to finish that up.

Nick, glad you didn't get the worst of it. That is some nasty business.

Philip, I think we should pass on your offer. Where we can usually struggle through 1" of snow, we would have to call out the Nat'l Guard and FEMA for anything more.:D

Ray, looking forward to some more cookies.

Paul, do you remember seeing: "See Rock City" (Lookout Mountain) all over the place.

Hope all you northern boys stay warm and avoid the southern immigrants that think they can drive in that mess.:eek:
 
Greetings and salutations. Not much new around here. I stuck my head into the LHS to see if the owner happened to wear suits. I was hoping to trade for a P2K FA-B set. He said that this Christmas season is the worst he's seen in years and needed the cash more than a suit. Oh well, you can't blame me for trying. I also saw a Walthers cornerstone, Milwaukee style passenger terminal. Man is that thing huge. The building is two feet long. I am hoping to build something similar for my upcoming modular layout. I don't think I can have a building that big on a 2x4or8 diorama though.

I am happy to say that we missed the ice storm they got south of us. Sorry for those that didn't. We have clear skies, temps in the teens. I hope everyone has a good day!
 


Afternoon, all. Hope everyone is having as good a day as the can.


Carey, I hope you start feeling better soon. I suspect the NWS is overdoing the strength of that front for the weekend as far as we are concerned. There might be a little white stuff in the hills in far northern Alabama but the front is doing a good job of blowing itself out over the Midwest. It sure looks impressive on radar though. As long as the cold air gets here after the tropical air has already left, we should be OK but I'm still concerned about a tornado outbreak. I guess we just don't have the population concentration to get a decent train show. Too bad because someone would sure get a lot of my money. :) Did you ever see the movie "My Cousin Vinny"? They have a great scene about instant grits and Southerners.

Jim;

I saw my cousin Vinny, and thought that some parts were funny and some weren't, but the "grits" scene was my favorite.

Concerning the weather. Its not the Thursday front that's the concern, its the LP trough forming on Sat that's the concern. I would expect some storms out of this at the least, and for now the "thought" of flurries is out of the discussion at present. Here's an exert from the NWS discussion at 6:00am concerning Saturday. Still possible depending on when the front arrives, but it looks like strong storms are more likely. I'd rather have the rain.


AND NOW TO THE YO-YO GAME OF SATURDAY AND MODEL DIVERGENCE. YES
THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN DIVERGED AND NOW SLOWED. AGAIN WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH ISN`T FAR OFF THE OTHERS. STILL LOOKS AS
IF A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
SKIRTS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST REASONING HAS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDDING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. THIS PLACES THE
HIGHER POP AREA AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF THE STATE.
SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE WELL UP INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LOW
SPRITZING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOW TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ARE A LITTLE OFF WITH CONCERN TO MOISTURE.

SO WITH THAT...THE MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES IS NOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST. THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER RUNS. MORE NOTE WORTHY
INFO...AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP...THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY.
 
Afternoon, all. I'll have coffee and several donuts, Flo. :)

Carey, that Saturday setup could be a problem but I think that ULL will form while we still have the warm air in place and the surface low dragging the cold air his way will arrive after the moisture has left. That should eliminate th chances of snow but increase the chances of strong storms. We've now had five days with highs of at least 75 and two with highs over 80. This kind of weather in December almost always ends with a bang instead of a whimper. The worst part is none of the models are showing a quantitative precipitation values above about half an inch so it still won't do much for our drought. As long as the storms don't get too strong, I guess we'll take what we can get. That grits scene in "My Cousin Vinny" was hilarious. I saw that movie long before I moved here and didn't realize how funny it was until I've heard people here talk the same way about instant grits.

Phillip, Ray, and Tom, I feel your your pain. I hated it when I never knew if I was going to wake to just another deary, rainy day or a foot of snow. I hope you at least avoid the ice storms that have been such a problem in the Midwest. Phillip, if you can find a way to warm up that rain about 30 degrees, we'll take it down here. :)

Rex and Paul, I remember all those billboards. I wish I had a barn for a Mail Pouch sign - those used to be anywhere. I put up five different billboards and it really adds to the cluttered look that was so common 30 years ago. There's a site that has all the Burma Shave sign sayings and I'm thinking about adding a set of those going out of town.

Corey, too bad about not being able to trade the suit and the LHS's gloomy outlook for business. I think he's right - we're headed into a prolonged recession so your decision to close your business now will seem like a really good idea a year from now. That Walthers passenger station sure does look impressive in the pictures I've seen but I'd need a huge layout for that plus the track sheds. I wonder how many Walthers think they will sell?

Ray, make us some more cookies when you get back. :D Sounds like fun doing all that music work without a boss on your back all the time. Tom, even though it eats up your modeling time, I'm glad you're doing all the work with the Cub Scouts. I like to think the things I learned as a Scout helped me turn out to be a better person.

Fog this morning but 74 degrees now and humid. Feels like May. Even my daffodils are starting to come up. The plants are starting to get really confused about what season this is, including my lawn, which is turning green. I'm afraid they'll find out by Saturday night is really winter.
 
Jim;

Gotsa agree that severe storms are more likely at this point. The latest model runs are totally out of wack. The EURO is trying to develop a double surface low, UKMET similar but not quite there yet, but the GFS says NO low UNTIL late etc.. When these models start showing something similar the closer it gets to Sat then we'll see just how bad those storms will be. A lot of the guiys on the weather forums I'm on, feel that the QPF is a total outlier. No way with the southerly flow of moisture from the GOM and the already high DP's, are we gonna get just .25" of rain. We really need the rain. But until someone at the NWS says otherwise, I can still hope. I don't care if it sticks or not, just like to see it fall.
 
Carey,
Yep, the models just don't have a handle on this because of the split flow pattern. I tend to go with the GFS in situations like this since it seems be the least confused. My guess is that we'll have one upper level low form after the passage of the first weak front tomorrow and that will ride along the trough boundary and start the trouble on Saturday. The surface low won't get here until late Saturday or early Sunday. There will be plenty of cold air but almost no moisture to work with. Still too far away to say with any certainty but a few flakes are still on the edges of the forecast area.

This brings up an interesting question. How did railroads in Alabama deal with snow? I know it's uncommon but there have been some pretty significant snows even down here, certainly enough to screw up railroad operations. Did they have any plows or just close down until it melted?
 
evening gents, some wild weather going down your side of the pond i see, nothing that bad here,,,,, yet.
just been to watch our son in the school nativity play, they did scrooge, very well done to, tommorow it's the youngests turn at his nativity play, can't wait for it, pity i have to work all day beforehand, plus a trip to the dentist again,, oh yes, it's also the charity thanksgiving service at work, we raised around $100,000 for local charities this year and it's the cheque presentations in work, we get the local schools in for a carol service with the brass band also, very good day.
later
 
Carey,
Yep, the models just don't have a handle on this because of the split flow pattern. I tend to go with the GFS in situations like this since it seems be the least confused. My guess is that we'll have one upper level low form after the passage of the first weak front tomorrow and that will ride along the trough boundary and start the trouble on Saturday. The surface low won't get here until late Saturday or early Sunday. There will be plenty of cold air but almost no moisture to work with. Still too far away to say with any certainty but a few flakes are still on the edges of the forecast area.

Thats the rub, the split flow. None of the models handles SF's well at all. History of the GFS is such that I believe that it would become even more confused. It will stay that way until about 24-36 hours away from the event. Some of the questions that the models need to answer to get it right seems to be...Which part of the split flow will become dominate? Will the SE Ridge retreat any or stay where its at? Will there be any influence with STS Olga?


This brings up an interesting question. How did railroads in Alabama deal with snow? I know it's uncommon but there have been some pretty significant snows even down here, certainly enough to screw up railroad operations. Did they have any plows or just close down until it melted?

I think that they would bring down their plows from the more "northern" reaches of their RRs, (SRR, L&N, SAL, ACL etc) IF the plows were needed. I know that the weather records for B'ham only go back a little more than 100yrs, and in that time there probably was only a total of 6-10 total snows where a plow would even be remotely needed. Average of the biggest snows would only be about 10" and that wouldn't slow even some of the lightest locos down very much.

I know that in 1993, the blizzard here did little to slow the RRs down, due to the plows that were placed on the diesels as they were built. I think the SRR started putting plows on back in the late 50's early 60's.
 


Hey, hey, hey! All this talk about weather (or not?). We are going to have some weather right here in the Finger Lakes in the next day or so. Glad my trip to the other end of the county was today not tomorrow. Here is what the NWS is calling for in this neck of the woods.
A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY.

SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY NOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING MID DAY.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE... ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION... AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED.

Sounds like a lot of fun doesn't it? I think most of tomorrow will be spent doing some "yard work" (so to speak...).

Got to get over to school for tonights concert. Later!
 
WELL........actually if the CKY meets with the BTU and slides past the GMB, we may get some RTT along with SNOW. Of course this all depends on the weather. Do you agree?:rolleyes: :D :D
 
LOL, Rex. Weather fans are kind of like train fans. We have our own language and it's intersting to speculate on what's coming. I've had my own weather station since I was about 12 years old and took some meteorology in college. I probably would have gone on to get a degree in it if I could jave figured out all that math. :)

Phillip, I was afraid your ability to warm up that rain wasn't as good as your modeling. I guess we'll have to wait and see what God decides.

Ray, I hope you don't have to go anywhere tomorrow. Looks like you'll have a winter wonderland as long as you can look at it out your front window and not behind the windshield of your car.
 
LOL, Rex. Weather fans are kind of like train fans. We have our own language and it's intersting to speculate on what's coming. I've had my own weather station since I was about 12 years old and took some meteorology in college. I probably would have gone on to get a degree in it if I could jave figured out all that math. :)

Jim;

Rex maybe right! There are so many abreviations used in meterology and they all really sound like a fur-en language!:D

The weather forum that I lurk on, is composed of met fans, met profs at MSU, USA and UK, several of the local mets and other professional mets nationwide. Its fun to "listen" to these guys get into a discussion on various model outputs, actual vs theoretical results of different formulas, various storm intensities, etc.

Anyway they have what is called "Call Maps" for upcoming events and I think ome guy really pegged it with his. What do yall think?:D

I especially like what he has for our more northern brothers.;):p:rolleyes:
 
:D Hahaha!:D
Carey, now that's a map I can understand LMAO!:D
Duh! Yup! We's go'in to has some weadur again.

I always have thought that weather would be a fascinating hobby and now with the internet and all the different weather feeds, it has to be great fun.;)
 
Good Morning ALl ! Just went out and put the car in the garage.We have a winter snow advisary . Suppose to get 4-6 inches of snow from 7Am to 7Pm . Well I say bring it on . Snowblower is ready and coffee is on . Carey that is a map I can read. Rex I can remember those old billboards. My favorite was for Topper Beer . Don't know why I guess it was for the TopHats which fascinated me when I was a child. Hope all you boys down South of the old Mason -Dixie line don't get too much snow . Well take care all and have a nice day !!!
 
Good morning coffee clubbers!

I think my area [west of Baltimore] is supposed to escape the freezing stuff, but the folks 10 miles to the east are not so lucky. I hope the forecasters are at least within 3 degrees of accuracy...!

Ray and Paul, hope you guys have a decent supply of vittles! At least you don't have to drive in that mess

NickB - glad to see you made it unscathed

Somebody on the Yahoo STEEL list started a new forum for steel modelers - long overdue IMHO, that Yahoo technology is very cumbersome to navigate. So I've been busy posting links to all my steel-related photos over there.

Have a great day!
 
12-13-2007

Good Morning from Tipton IN ! :D

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:eek:

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Morning all!

Well, the freezing rain / sleet thing never happened, and I'm OK with that! Been praying for those poor folks out west though. Thats a tough one! We are looing like we're going to see some decent (for around here anyways) snowfall Saturday though. They're talking 4-6 inches at least. Right now it's not bad though. It's almost 40 degrees now, but it's been raining all night, so everything's good and wet.

Gotta get more schoolwork done today. I have my finals for one class and the first weeks homework for another. Fun, fun, fun!

Oh hey! I got invited to visit a Mennonite church this weekend. Think I might go just to see what it's like. I met the pastor there by chance and we got to talking theology and he gave me the invite. I asked him a bit about what to expect and he said basically it's kinda like "Amish Lite" jokingly. I mean, they drive cars and have electricity and all, but they live a very simple life. I think it might be a good experience to go and see that though.

Alright, well, I'm off! Later!
 


Ray and Paul, hope you guys have a decent supply of vittles! At least you don't have to drive in that mess

Have a great day!

Nah, I've already been out driving in it and have a Dr. Appointment at 1 today. (luckily it's only a block away from my house.) We have had about 2 inches of snow so far, and if you take everything easy, it is quite easy to drive in. The only problem is the idiots that drive huge 4 wheel drive SUVs, etc. that think they can drive 80 in a 55 mile zone cause they have the "right" vehicle....... There are only a few cars out on the road right now and they are all driving slow and leaving extra space between cars.

BTW, Good Morning everyone!

I found a broken end of a bolt with a rubber washer on it laying under my truck yesterday just before I had to drive to Honeoye Schools. I was very a bit worried as I went there and back. This morning I took the piece over to my Dodge dealer and siad, "Have any idea what the %*!! this might be. They check out the part against the parts list for my Dakota. Came back and told me they weren't sure what it is, but it didn't fall off my truck. Whew!

I may have a rehearsal to go to after school is out, but I have a feeling that after school activities will be canceled today. There will be one very upset Middle School Band Director over there I think.

Stay warm and safe!
 




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