Running Bear's April 2022 Coffee Shop

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Good Morning All. Clear and 42° on this bright sunny Saturday morning. There's no wind yet this morning, but high winds will return today except they will be out of the south and we'll warm up into the mid to upper-80's for a few days.

Woke up too early this morning and I have finally caught up with all of the other threads here, and the news feeds from two other sources and now I am ready to nap. So off I go and I'll be back later.
 
Good morning from So. Central Wisconsin which if you look at a Wisconsin map the center of my area is Madison, Wisconsin. I am a transplant from the Chicago suburbs when I left that area for college in Milwaukee in 1970. 3.5 years in college, 3 years back in Illinois and since then all Wisconsin. No longer a Bear fan, yes I follow the Pack. I am still a fan of the White Sox, the Black Hawks and Bulls. I do know who the Cubs are and enjoyed the 1969 season but was never a real follower.

gregm is located in eastern Wisconsin based in a Milwaukee suburb

mikeinhubcity is located in eastern north Central Wisconsin around the Marshfield area, my old work related stomping grounds from 1975 till 2014.

There are other of Wisconsin’s finest modelers on this forum

I added some info to the profile.

Today is a day of maybe re-organizing the paint bench and the modeling bench. Depending on where I look it will be high of 48 or 50. Doesn’t matter but the ground is super soggy. I will be looking for some branches today to convert to HO scale pulpwood sticks. It looks pretty calm out there, so a nice day for this.

I have orders for 20 pulp loads that fit the Walthers pulpwood cars. I then need to replace 10 loads for myself as I sent those out to fill past orders. It doesn’t take long to assemble the load, it’s all in the preparation of the load. Finding the useable branches, cutting them into 100” sticks, drying them in the oven and then gluing them into a load. I actually enjoy the whole process.

TomO
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Morning Everyone! 57F looking for only 85 today after 96 yesterday.
Short stuff: Got the #4 sprinkler valve working - now the #5 went "oink"!
MIL was a little more coherent yesterday - even acknowledging conversation?
Spousal Unit and sister spent the day yesterday snorkeling with the turtles and stingrays.

CURT - Tks for that "GEEK" info. I'm on a plan ($99 a year) for three computers, but I need to have them come here and make all computers "talk" to the different printers as don't seem to want too after our latest cable/internet switcharoo!

Greg - I feel your [stock market] pain: Today I got the quarterly statement from my largest portfolio and saw it had lost 10% of its total value!☹️ Hopefully these losses won't become the "new normal."
IBKEN, GREG, and others ... Ya'll be careful!
We have had roughly 12/13 years of an "up" market; I would not be at all surprised to see 1 to 3 years of a down market. Currently I have about a 50-50 mix of "short and long" option spreads.
I won't get killed, but I have had roughly a 10% swing, both up and down, for the last several weeks-- overall still slightly ahead for the year!

Frankly - Personally - The way things are compounding at the moment ...
I would not be surprised by an absolute "crash" --- the entire global system is being overwhelmed on just about all fronts.

Looks like a good day going forward.
 


Well howdy there internet peeps, and those who love spending tax refunds on hobby stuff

It's Troy again

MIL update: docs still want to monitor her, so she's in the hosp for another day. My wife and SIL are off to start transporting stuff to her new apt. Trying to move stuff for kitchen etc. Tues after Easter is the official moving day.

I got 863 words worded on the book.

Back to the grind. Gotta figure out howdunnit... and sprinkle some more red herrings around.
 
We have had roughly 12/13 years of an "up" market; I would not be at all surprised to see 1 to 3 years of a down market. Currently I have about a 50-50 mix of "short and long" option spreads.
I won't get killed, but I have had roughly a 10% swing, both up and down, for the last several weeks-- overall still slightly ahead for the year!
Sherrel: And for most of that 12/13 years, our bankers have been getting interest free money from the US Treasury via the Fed, which was also buying up all their sub prime debt. Now, suddenly, they are going to have to pay for the use of the money, going to have to be careful who they lend to, while at the same time, some are being "sanctioned" out of some lucrative markets, so they are taking a tantrum.

In the last 12/15 months my portfolio's chart looks like a roller coaster. with wild swings up and down. I knew something was wrong when my portfolio's performance for 12 months, was better than the S&P 500 index......but that's how nutty this market is right now. Most of the excuses offered by the "experts" are getting kind of lame.

On the bright side, some time in the future, interest rates on cash positions, may pay more than 0.10%. Giving us another alternative, and long binds may again become attractive, once rates increase.

Once and if we learn to source strategic components domestically, instead of relying on cheap foreign sources, we will be less vulnerable to supply chain difficulties.
 
Managing my own 401k was getting to time consuming. I turned it over to a fiduciary to make money with it. Yeah, I have to pay for that service, but since I did that, it's been making money even as the markets have been falling.
Ken: That works very well, if you have the right person managing your portfolio. It's money well spent. In my case, my performance was as lackluster as my "manager's" personality. Since I have the time, I resumed managing my own affairs, and have been doing better.
 
50° and cloudy with a minimal chance of rain. Going up into the low 60s.

I made significant progress on the PRR yard. 5 tracks all are now powered. The adjacent Reading yard 4 tracks remains to be finished. Roadbed arrived yesterday, so that's the weekend project.

Guy: Nice tank cars...For what it's worth, I used to drill Shell Chemical in Sewaren NJ, when I worked the "Barber Drill" out of Port Reading. The line was appropriately called "The Chemical Coast".
 


Ken: That works very well, if you have the right person managing your portfolio. It's money well spent. In my case, my performance was as lackluster as my "manager's" personality. Since I have the time, I resumed managing my own affairs, and have been doing better.
I had my portfolio with Fidelity for quite some time and did my own steering of investments. I looked at their recommendation for a fiduciary back in 2015 and took their advice. That group failed miserably. Took almost 6 months of determining were to invest my funds and then, performance was less than what I was getting on another account that I was still managing. I finally fired them and kept my funds with Fidelity. About 6 months ago I inquired about a fiduciary again and they referred me to another fund manager. They produced all kinds of grafts and charts of performance. Looked good, but then I checked their background. Hmmm, one of their managers was recently convicted of money laundering and a few other finance crimes. That did it for me with Fidelity. I moved everything over to Morgan Stanley.
 
I'm back. Ah! Yes, what a convenient alarm clock the human bladder can be.
Spent a goodly part of the day yesterday mowing after last Monday night's 1.5" rain and the lovely 70°+ days. That new drive belt arrived just before noon. It did however, take me longer to put it on as I had to take off one pulley to remove remnants of the old belt.

Interesting story about how Tom O got to be called that. In my case, I was Billy to most until I was about 10 years old and it became Bill. Meanwhile since I went to Catholic schools for 12 years, I was known there as William by the nuns and priests. After starting college at 17, my friends from high school just started calling me Willie. I didn't mind and I've been that name way ever since. When I first met my wife, she saw Bill written on some of my record albums and had to ask me who that was?

Thanks for all of the likes and comments regarding the bungalow yesterday; Steve J, Guy, Mikey, Karl, Sherrel, Patrick, Chad, Hughie, Tom O, Gary, Dave B, Tom, Louis, Rick, OB Ken, IB Ken, Smudge.

I am in the down time between projects right now out in the train shed. So I resumed some "under the layout" cleaning and sorting. i also started Q2's biannual cleaning of the layout surfaces. I didn't find any stray parts along the tracks on the section that I am doing this quarter. I vacuum next before removing and cleaning/dusting vehicles and structures. Many of the structures don't appear to need it this time around. I'll still take a few off here and there and add details and touch up paint as I always do.
From the archives, a few repeats, but maybe new to some.
One of my favorites, Majestic Hardware, a laser-cut wood kit from Bar Mills.
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Guy - Your benchwork looks very professional. I like it. Judging from your recent purchases, the bug has finally bitten you!!!;)
Karl - Gun Bingo sounds very interesting. I have seen signs posted on utility poles for it around here occasionally.
Tom O - Thank you for noticing my taxpayer dollars at work on the Texas Highways. The two lane rural ones are well maintained. Most Interstates have been re-built in the last ten years. Can't personally comment on the streets in Austin because I haven't been in the city itself for over 25 years. "the crazy fast speed limits" are required to get away from the liberal city of Austin quickly!
Greg - My wife always loved those clients with foreign income of any kind. She made loads of money on those returns.
Regarding the porch garden. Some things like Basil and Cilantro do have to come inside overnight occasionally. The pots make it easy. The Sage is only in a pot right now until it gets better established, as it is a very hardy perennial, at least for here.
Dave - I agree with you regarding everyone completing more information. It gives a better sense of companionship.
Curt - Glad to read that you and your wife are feeling better. By the way, are you able to use your pool yet? Only one more month before I uncover and get mine ready. Then it takes about a week for the sun to warm it up.
Ken (D&J) - I'm just the opposite regarding investments. After retiring I took over self-management of my retirement portfolio since I now had time. It has done far better than the sometimes disappointing performance when I had an advisor. This year hasn't been great, I have lost about 1%, but in the last seven years, I have almost doubled the fund. And I did it without going over 30% in the market.
Smudge - Where's the pictures? You know that we love pictures.

Everybody have a great Saturday.
 
Good morning, all! Awoke to 49 degrees but has since climbed to 68, heading for the mid 80's this afternoon.
A bowl of oatmeal and coffee please.

Not a lot to report from the train room, actually nothing to report. I know it's there; I mean I pass right by it on the way to everywhere else.
I have been looking for the Bar Mills Shipyard Brewing Co. in N scale, but all I find is kit #0851 which is the half structure. The full building is new, and #0855.

Got this from a friend in Canada. I suppose you could replace Canada with say, Wisconsin.
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STAY SAFE

LATER
 
Afternoon All,

Well, the USPS package I was waiting on that was supposed to be delivered today instead got routed to a town about an hour away. :( This morning I did one of the biannual weed killer applications to the yard, put down red ant bait, and cleaned up dead palm fronds from the recent storms.

In the train room I turned a 40 ft Pennsy box car into a storage building for cattle feed and weathered it. After figuring out building and corral location I did the ground cover for that section.

TomO- Beautiful layout shots. They look real. What is the wooden brace on the fascia for?

Troy- I hope you and your family have some relief soon. You have a lot on your plate.

IB Ken- Neat solution to the problem.

Guy- Nice tank cars. If the holes are on the tabletop shouldn't scenery/ground cover the dimples?

Joe- It sounds like you're making good progress.

Tom- That is very nice.

Willie- Great looking hardware store. Yes, the pool is open. We've been having a lot of 80+ days already.

I hope everyone has a good night.
 
Good Afternoon Everyone.....partly sunny and cooler. Feel more like November than April.

All plans for today were changed when Cathy said she wanted to go shopping. I don't mind since she rarely asks for much and she loves to shop. So here I am at the computer and I found a couple of good videos that I passed along and after watching one of the videos with weathering gondolas, I need to order at least three to help round out my collection.

My NWSL beveled gears arrived yesterday. Wow, tiny little parts and when the day comes to replace the original gears, I don't look forward to the project! The tracking said they would arrive on Monday.

Speaking of investments....my personal portfolio is doing fairly well considering the current state of affairs. I have an annuity that will pay Cathy and I for life and it dropped a lot in value, but is still well above my purchase price from almost 10 years ago. Once it matures we have the option of closing that account for whatever value is in the account or just continue drawing from the prinple. If the value reaches zero we're still okay and should I pass away, Cathy will receive the full purchase amount. We receive monthly income from the annuity.

There is a small cost for these annuity options, but we feel the cost is well worth it.

Tom: That Scale Trains' BNSF, GE ES44AC is a great looking locomotive!!! Are you planing any weathering? The BNSF color scheme is one of my favorites of all roads.

That's about all for today....

Greg

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Tom: That Scale Trains' BNSF, GE ES44AC is a great looking locomotive!!! Are you planing any weathering? The BNSF color scheme is one of my favorites of all roads.
I just got done looking at RR picture archives and the latest pic for 6179 was on 3/11/22 and it must've been just washed. The only thing that was dirty was the screens in the back. I plan on doing a very light coat of dull coat after putting on a light coat of grimy black on the screens. The BNSF will run with the CSX Military and Law Enforcement which CSX keeps pretty clean too.
 
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Evening all,

Got the servers updated a couple of hours quicker than expected. They all behaved and did what they were supposed to do. Even got a server backing up again, but had to create a new job to do it. Glad I figured that one out.

Got home a bit later as I had to pickup some prescriptions and a bunch of stuff at Menard's. Rough cedar has gotten expensive. 2 8ft 4x4 posts were $72. Need them for the front porch rails on the daughter's house. I always get the center ones. Bbl
 
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