When Will DCC become the standard?


When will DCC become 100% "The standard"

  • Total voters
    74
lmackattack

lmackattack

old school
We are at the end of 2010 and DCC has made a big impression to the hobby this past decade. The cost of a DCC system has dramaticly been reduced and many people are making the investment now.

When do you see DCC becoming the standard for all MFG. Meaning when will all mfg start building locos that only run on DCC? I know it will happen...but how long do we have to wait?
 
I think Z scale will be the last "major" scale to go Digital. Not because Z scalers are die-hard analog, but because it's so much tougher to incorporate the electronics in that small a package.
I can't think of anything built in the last 5 years in N scale or larger that didn't have either a quick plug or drop-in decoder of some kind, or at least an empty spot for a decoder.

Something I am thinking about more and more is whether the hobby itself will survive long enough to go 100% digital. That thought, though, should be a discussion and poll for another thread.
 
I don't want loco to be decoder equipped, I want to choose mine myself. Athearn and Spectrum are pretty much converted to dcc ready but atlas are dragging their feet.
 
I prefer to have sound & DCC from the factory. Less hassles trying to install it myself.

The one's that have DCC and Sound are either QSI or Soundtraxx anyways, so you're getting a quality decoder.
 
I like the choice of DCC ready as I can put my own decoder in the unit. Unless I get a real good deal (no more than $100-$125) on a loco with DCC/Sound, I pass on them for a DCC ready. I find I can save about $50 a loco if I do the decoder install.

also Not all factory DCC equiped locos have high end decoders. Bachmann still has their lower line with cheep decoders that are not very good in basics such as motor control. Spectrum with the tsunami is a nice decoder with most of the options needed.

What I find intresting is that alot of starter sets now are DCC ready. I think as DCC gets cheeper and cheeper all starter sets will become DCC only. I can see the cheap starter set DC transformer going away for a cheap version of DCC controler . It might look like a cheap transformer,have the knob for speed control and with a few buttons for lights on off, horn, bell. Even if the starter set loco is not really a good performer the cost for a little speaker and decoder is not that much if it may attract a dad buying a cheap set for his kid.

The reason Im intrested is that I hear a few people that absolutely wont except changeing or try DCC when in Reality they will sooner or later be forced to change or will have to start removeing the DCC parts to run DC LOL....
 
I've been a proponent of DCC nearly since it was commercially available, though I got "pushed over the edge" when I traded for 3 locomotives with sound and DCC. That motivated me to install decoders in everything, much like the old N&W when they dieselized (took about 4 months to go completely digital). Now, out of several hundred locomotives, I have a total of two that aren't equipped (both very old Rivarrossi). Those two are being stored pending disposition.
 
I think we maybe very close to DCC being the only option. Slot cars (I believe) went digital very quickly since it finally allowed real racing and due to having few manufactors. Now we have Bachmann leading on the low cost end and most everyone else offering either ready to go or ready to plug in. If sales figures show people are buying DCC, I see the manufactures stop offering DC all together. This would lower the number of products offered aand raise profit margins. The fact that most work under DC also makes that decision for the manufactors even easier. I say it's happening very soon.
 
Within a few years I would say, as the prices continue to drop and support + options continue to arise. Probably the only stuff that won't comes DCC fitted as standard will be the kids/floor toy variety and specialist/minor prototypes, which will be more than likely DCC ready anyway.

Also, from a non American point of view, the strength of, in my case the Australian dollar (almost at parity) is a godsend as it allows extremely competitive import of products compared to buying them in the local store and will allow many to move into DCC where perhaps the initial cost was off-putting.
 
Trent, to get a meaningful answer - even as a bit of speculation by the poster - there needs to be background numbers to support what percentage of hobbyists has even converted to DCC so far. Although DCC may be at the forefront in the magazines, I've seen nothing based on actual surveys that suggests that DCC acounts for even half the hobby currently. Lacking that necessary information, your question simply becomes a matter of picking some random number out of a hat.

What also needs serious consideration is the fact that a very large segment of older hobbyists with large and established DC layouts are not particularly enthusiastic about going back, re-wire everything and otherwise rebuilding the power grid on their pikes for DCC. It's likely that the majority of these will never convert.

There was a brief push in the very early 2000's for manufacturers to go to all DCC engines that failed, but more recently "stealth", or DC-only, locomotives have again become rather available, along with their DCC-ready counterparts, as the manufacturers realized that they were missing a large segment of the customer base that was strictly DC.

So, I'd say that until the current generation of senior hobbyists are gone, I don't expect DCC to truly take over the hobby, justifying my 9+ years vote.

NYW&B
 
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I think a lot of the problem is you cannot run both easily on your existing layout .Sure the Tech 6 solves a lot of problems and creates at least one with Gensets not be compatible but its not that cheap and wipes out some of DCC 's advayages .Probably a tech 6 style power supply is the answer though .One that switches twixt DC and DCC easily and safely .Then all those DC modelers out there with huge stocks of old style locos will be able to operate all their stock .Also having to power live frog points and such to stop shorting etc is a pain .I am laying insulfrog Peco code 80 on my first module to see how it goes .It should be OK with largish 8 wheel switchers .DCC is not like upgrading your TV ,its not plug and forget like most modern electronics .I can still play my old videos if I wish to on my latest super duper TV .I use a Tech 6 by the way .My Gensets haven't arrived to the UK yet but I am watching forums like this like a hawk to find out about avoiding problems .
 
Isn't it already the standard? All of the big name brand manufacturers address it somehow. The only people not using it are holdouts who have large rosters and/or large layouts who don't want to spend the time and dollars to convert. The NMRA has standards for it. You still get Horn Hook couplers with many manufacturer's cars (though not installed) but how long is it since the Kadee style became the de facto standard? You should add a "Now" choice
 
NYW&B
I have no clue what the solid numbes are but I would say new people or dads seriosuly getting their kids into the hobby are more into DCC, Older people still enjoying the hobby seam the most resistant. I will say that I have met very few that went from DC to DCC and went back to DC. they are out there but very rare in my experince.

Alfsboy
yes it is a problem to run DC and DCC on the same layout. Most DCC systems allow one unit to run DC but thats it. The only other way to do both DC and DCC is to keep blocks on a layout and use one of the cabs for DC and the other for DCC. But at that point is the layout really DCC... Personaly from my experince I dont think it is what DCC is all about.

If I understand what you say correctly, I have to disagree with the comment that DCC is not plug and play. Most starter Set (bachmann) and middle of the road (MRC) DCC systems can simply be pluged in, 2 wires to the track, and the loco runs on address 0003 that is no diffrent than a DC set under the Christmas tree. The big diffrence is if you add a 2nd loco to your layout and want to operate both. With DCC you can run both by changing the address on one of them. At this very point you have basicly broke even between the cost of DC and DCC. you have saved time and money with the DCC system. no wires,toggles,insolators,soldering,time spent under they layout etc.... Sound and high end decoders is another story. thats where DCC is pricy but this is all on the person that decides what way and how far to go with DCC.
 
alfsboy said:
I think a lot of the problem is you cannot run both easily on your existing layout .Sure the Tech 6 solves a lot of problems and creates at least one with Gensets not be compatible but its not that cheap and wipes out some of DCC 's advayages .Probably a tech 6 style power supply is the answer though .One that switches twixt DC and DCC easily and safely .Then all those DC modelers out there with huge stocks of old style locos will be able to operate all their stock .Also having to power live frog points and such to stop shorting etc is a pain .I am laying insulfrog Peco code 80 on my first module to see how it goes .It should be OK with largish 8 wheel switchers .DCC is not like upgrading your TV ,its not plug and forget like most modern electronics .I can still play my old videos if I wish to on my latest super duper TV .I use a Tech 6 by the way .My Gensets haven't arrived to the UK yet but I am watching forums like this like a hawk to find out about avoiding problems .
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All of the worst electircal problems I have ever seen are encountered by those running Hybrid DC/DCC layouts. Why would anyone want to do this? Masochistic tendencies? Once you add the DCC system, get rid of the DC. Decoders are cheap now, and everything doesn't have to have sound. You can convert locos for less than twenty bucks each including light bulbs & resistors.
 
lmackattack said:
Alan....

I like your thinking LOL... If it was only that easy.....!!!!;)
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Actually Trent, it is. Except for Walmart "cheapies" that only come out at Christmas time, any new product worth the bucks is offered with DCC or is DCC ready. Loco motors are just about all isolated now. Even the lower end Bachmann steamers & diesels are offered with DCC on board. Manufacturers are thinking DCC first, then offering DC alternates that can be quickly and easily converted if the owner desires. There are some of us who prefer say Tsinami over QSI, and we will buy DCC ready versions and install our own sound. Even turnouts are being made "DCC friendly". It's pretty pervasive. The DC alternate will never go totally away...it's too easy to offer, but DCC is governing manufacturer's thinking right now. :D
 
I hear some people saying some old timers will never convert but that's not the question. The question is when will the manufacturers only offer DCC. That day is near. As far as when the last DC hold out will convert, that could be never. I would guess some people run antiques now and one day DC will as old fashion as hooking up your car battery to run tinplate trains.
 
I just got started in this hobby two years ago and have no plans to use dcc. Not that I wouldn't ever, but it's just not that important to me right now. The current layout is set up to run one train. Most of the time that one train circles while I build, build, build!:D I guess you could call me a builder, scenery guy, roundy rounder. Until the day I change, I hope they never phase out dc.

Edit: Since when did they post how you voted in the polls? Not that I care, I just never noticed that before.
 
QUOTE: "I hope they never phase out dc."

Well you could always pull the decoder out and generally simplify the wiring. Just keep it in the box if you ever change your preferences. I'm sure that's what some people will do when everything comes with ONLY DCC installed.

As the prices of decoders drop, at some point in time the manufacturers will relish the ability to cut their inventory 'flavors' in half.

It would actually make DCC equipped models less expensive if the MRR industry is like other industries. We once had to crank our car's windows down -- since power windows were a pricey option. That was my air conditioner too!

It turns out to be cheaper to make 'em all the same with AC, Power windows, brakes steering and on and on. When I bought my Mustang it came with a ton of mandatory stuff that was all optional long ago.
 
Do you really think that will make things cheaper?

The two Bachmann Locos I have use duel decoders. I've installed the bypasses so they run better. If they phase out dc I hope they make the decoders dual mode. Or I suppose I could make the switch.;)
 
QUOTE: " Do you really think that will make things cheaper?"

Anytime a manufacturing company can reduce how many SKUs (or product versions) it has it lowers cost. If they can cut versions in half, and retain 90-percent of the business volume, they can reduce the total cost of a product line. It's not just the cost of putting parts together that a company faces.

If you have different versions of esentially the same thing, you have to guess which ones to stock and at what levels. If you over-build one version you may not have enough of the other. So you lose sales opportunity -- and also have other items gathering dust because your "forecast" was wrong. Any engineering design changes have to be tracked as to version-and- model "effectivity". I can tell you this from over 40 years of engineering electronic equipment, The documentation and impact on prduction isn't free.

Plus, the trend is for more complexity AND at lower prices. It has been that way in electronics for 50 years now. Check color TV prices from 1960 and compare the same size today.

Remember that your cellphone has way more computing power than the system that we sent to the moon in the Apollo moon missions. My first PC with 10-megaHz (1988) cost me about $2000. I can get one 250 times faster for a third that price now.

So why wouldn't the same thing be expected for DCC - tempered a little bit by the fact that the market-size is much smaller. But, the microcontroller chips and other parts are common to the larger electronics industry and those prices keep going lower with more capability all the time.
 
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