In 10 Years

[Larry]

"Where do you think this Hobby will be?" I've been reading on diff. web sites about battery operated trains over DCC. If this is true those batteries are going to be tiny especially for N gauge or even HO gauge. I think the DCC will be around for many years to come, but, we will be wearing glasses or a sm. helmet w/radio control by brain waves. Trains will be a lot faster than what we can make them do at the present. I think we will see magnetic traction in model railroading & rails will be what we did when we were kids. Sounds?
Sounds will be an everyday item on a model railroad. Off & on the trains.
What do you think will be the new items for the future, just 10 years away?

Larry

 

[macjet]

Ten years from now Proto might actually release an SD40-2.

 

[jbaakko]

Ten years from now, we might finally be able to buy the T55 ACe (Kidding, hope it get here in 2009!).

I dunno, I think there will be TONS more computer control, maybe better in-unit cameras, ect.

 

[UP2CSX]

I suspect they will have finally perfected both DCC and sound and gotten the price point down to where all locomotives come with both items as standard. I think we'll see radio control as the defacto standard with no more wires except the two that go to the track. I don't think battery technology will still have progressed enough to make them the standard for smaller gauges although anything S scale or bigger will use rechargeable batteries with no track power. The one area I'm hoping to see some real progress in is scenic effects. Engines with exhaust smoke that doesn't foul up the tracks, sumulated dust as the train travels down the track, and really good doppler effects. It should be an interesting period but manufacturers will have to find a way to keep rpices in line or this will become a rich mans hobby.

 

[Jess Red Horse]

I think we will have trains that can hover on air, well Ok, maybe not but you didn't leave me much after your post, what could I say, we will have trains that are solar powered????
I think we might see the introduction of a different scale or maybe hologram layouts.
Sure I'm nuts, didn't you read my past posts???

 

[V&AL]

I see V scale taking off in a BIG way, as well as animatroncis everywhere. People moving (probably on a moving-walkway style rather than left leg-right leg. but motion is motion) and vehicles moving will be alot more available (and cheaper!)

 

[NYW&B]

"Where do you think this Hobby will be (in ten years)?"

I would say that in attempting to predict the future of our hobby it is absolutely necessary to look at what's happened over the past ten years, as well as appreciating current trends and the state of our ecconomy, when prognosticating future developments in model railroading.

I would tend to agree that in a decade or so, DCC as we know it today, will be gone, replaced by on-board battery power and radio/wireless computer control. If anything, track will only be used to recharge power to battery on the fly, eliminating virtually all wiring. The need for battery development in the face of our current problems with oil will likely spur incredible R&D and undreamed of advances in that technology.

Don't look for locos or rollingstock to decline in price in the future. If the recent past is any indication at all, expect to see pricing continue to rise at a rate that far outstrips inflation. Manufacturing in China will undoubtedly become progressively more expensive in the future and it is unclear if any third world nation would be technologically advanced enough to replace them. My guess is that the "average" HO locomotive will retail for at least $300-$400 for diesels and $600+ for steamers. Locos at the market's high end (like those selling for $500-$800 today) will be marketed at better than $2,000 per, although demand will be declining, just as we've seen in the case of brass (which will be an extinct branch of the hobby a decade from now). The high end locos will be able to be purchased custom detailed to specific roads, perhaps ever specific eras or individual locomotives. Rollingstock of any quality will easily go for $50-$75 per. Needless to say, the better 2nd hand models from today will be in great demand.

As to "realistic" loco functions, like sound and smoke, look for the former to improve enormously but maintain its extra cost margin above silent models (no, silent engines won't go away, as many oldtimes don't like sound). Improved versions of more realistic smoke will undoubtedly be attempted by a few manufacturers but look for this feature to fail because of too many issues regarding health problems among operators and viewers (already mentioned as a problem at some train shows today). Also, expect track signaling to become an increasingly common feature on layouts. The possibility also exists for on-board video to return in a big way but this time interfaced with a home computer program that creates artificial backgrounds that are automatically blended with the layout's video scene, providing a truly real-world view with sky, clouds, appropriate distant terrain beyond the modeler's foreground scenicking.

For the more well to do hobbyists, pro-built layouts will become the norm. For the rest of us, partially or even completely finished (at a price), modest-sized, modules will be available.

Also expect that, as the number of Baby Boomers in the hobby rapidly begins to decline by the late teens, total hobbyist numbers will shrink steadily and organizations centered around craftmanship (like the NMRA) and RR historical societies (many already in trouble) could very well disappear for lack of membership.

NYW&B

 

[River Run]

Hologram Layouts... LOL!!!

 

[Old 97]

I think we'll see 1:1 scale cab simulators that will allow the operator to run his layout from the "real" engineer's seat.

 

[OldGettysk]

I just hope that I will still be running my trains in ten years !!!!!As far as our hobby it depends on economics . How much profit can be made on model trains will dictate how far development will go !!!!

 

[Larry]

Thanks Everyone for the great comments. We will look at this thread in 10 years & see what we missed.

Larry

 

[Rico]

I remember back in the day... weren't we all supposed to be cruising around in flying cars by the year 2000?
Didn't you at least expect the roads would be done??
I like the answers so far... but I'm not even going to try to guess...

 

[Larry]

How about a mini simulator of a train cab w/all the movements of a worn out track, hard pulling engines on a grade & the tilt on a sharp curve w/a 3000 ft. drop off a mtn. Just sitting there next to your layout. You could run everything from the simulator. All of your controls right in front of you.

Larry

 

[Airslide]

I think we'll see 1:1 scale cab simulators that will allow the operator to run his layout from the "real" engineer's seat.

very interesting.

in 10 years, i hope to be closing on a new larger house/farm and in the planning stages of my next, much bigger and better layout. in this new house i also plan to have a g scale set up in the garden.

"if you believe, then you can achieve"

 

[NYW&B]

I think we'll see 1:1 scale cab simulators that will allow the operator to run his layout from the "real" engineer's seat.

Interestingly, I think it was back in the late 1980's or early 90's, one of MR's editors speculated in an OP ED piece that probably in the relatively near future hobbyists could see having a special closet-like video room in their house equipped to act as a 1:1 cab simulator.

We're nearly two decades beyond his suggestion without any such device having surfaced and except perhaps for the very rich, I wonder if such will ever really come to pass...and at what expense if it does?

NYW&B

 

[Old 97]

I think it will be very expensive at first, but just like the microwave and VCR, it should get cheaper as you go. I think it would have to come eventually, as it's the ultimate next and final step as model railroaders strive to get into the engineer's seat.

 

[UP2CSX]

You can already get virtual cabs for Railroad Simulator. They run a couple of thousand dollars but that cost could be bought down if more people bought them for their model railroads. I think the biggest issue is space. Most of us barely have enough room for our layouts let alone cramming in a cab simulator. I suspect this type of thing will remain the purview of the wealthy for a long time to come.

 

[sparkyftw]

With the cab simulator, people could run on any ones home layout. You could go real life, or make your own. Think of how great the OP sessions would be. Get say 10 guys being the engineers, you get another guy as the dispatcher.

Best part, everyone could be from opposite ends of the world. And a sandbox mode so someone could make their very own layout would give you endless styles of layouts.

 

[el3637]

I think one could certainly predict certain trends will continue. 10 years isn't that much time. The main thing to come about since 1998 is the proliferation of sound. It existed prior to that but there was no RTR sound to speak of; today every major manufacturer has gotten into the act. While many view this as all good, I see a $100 price increase on locomotives - some of which are not being offered without sound, or not stocked that way by dealers, and the effort and expense is a distraction from more mundane things - like prototypical accuracy and mechanical quality. Not that these things have necessarily gone downhill, but they have stagnated and some cuts are apparent - like Atlas downsizing flywheels to nearly meaningless proportions, and Athearn's ongoing inability to consistently manufacture a quality motor for their base RTR product line.

Anyway, back to the future - while the wireless/battery-op technology will certainly emerge and become more affordable, I can't see it replacing conventional track power (DC or DCC) in the near future. On-board battery ops in scales HO or smaller will require different drive technology and current motors and other components aren't going to convert. Sorry, but I doubt if most legacy hobbyists are going to throw hundreds of thousands of locomotives in the trash just to be trendy. I'm not looking forward to having to remember to stick my locomotives on the charger the night before a run session, or having to juggle 200 cases of battery memory. I am enough annoyed that my two-year old cordless house phones (non-cell) have degraded to where they only go 40-45 minutes now when they used to go 150. This technology will continue to improve, but not to the point that I'm going to abandon track power. Probably not in my lifetime. There just isn't enough "wrong" with track power that it needs to be eliminated. In large scales - particularly with outdoor operation - battery ops is much more practical. No need to power hundreds or thousands of feet of track, plus the locomotives are large enough to carry a real battery capable of extended duty.

What I do see is more and more variety in prototypes, and tooling for plastic models becoming more and more versatile. It is already largely done by computer, and computer design may permit even more complex multi-part molds in the future. For instance presently in order to have treadplate on a hood diesel, the walkway and hood sections must be molded separately. Because the part ultimately has to be ejected from the mold, it has to be able to move in at least one direction without any obstruction. So in order for a one-piece hood unit to come out of a mold (as in, older Athearn shells) the walkway must be smooth so it can slide out of the mold that direction. But more complex, movable molds could solve this - the walkway tread section could lift and pull pack diagonally, etc - I'm thinking that tooling will be designed to produce fewer parts, reducing assembly labor. And automation may begin to replace human hands for many assembly tasks. The same technology that has had robots assembling complex circuit boards since the 1980s could be used to assemble models, drill holes, mount grab irons, etc - right now Chinese labor is cheaper than the robotics. That could very well change... very quickly.

I see some return to USA manufacturing, but not while assembly remains labor intensive - automation is the key, automating assembly as well as simplifying assembly by doing more and more complex shapes in the molding process. I think these technologies have been, and will be developed in manufacturing across the board and in the next 10 years will become affordable and practical for model railroad products.

On the craftsman side of things, mixed media kits are here to stay and will continue to grow. Rail Yard, Tangent, Rail Flyer, BLMA etc. will not become mainstream but they will fill the void left by the major manufacturers when they have gone RTR exclusively. Open up a RYM kit and see what can be done with only two materials, resin and etching - and the use of rapid prototyping masters.

Which brings me to the last prediction: rapid prototyping technology is fast evolving and already low-end systems are affordable to individuals. Follow this trend and the eventual conclusion is - if you can draw it, you can make it. Draw it wrong? Fix drawing and make it again.

While mainstream heads toward gadgetization, noisemakers, increasingly disparate and incompatible control systems, I think there will remain more than enough material - new and old - for me to proceed with my layout and fleet plans. I will grump when I see one more kit vanish from the market, replaced by a sloppily-assembled, high-priced RTR glopped with bullet-proof paint. But I'll get by.

Andy

 

[River Run]

Sometime in the future, there will be printers available to the public that will put any 3D or CAD Drawing into a HO Scale plastic locomotive shell, or any detail you choose. This is already a reality in Industrial Format. The day will come when you can load the drawings of what you want into your home computer and make any locomotive you want.