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Kits won't be any cheaper then RTR if the market reverts back to kits.The manufacturers costs would be about the same since modelers has demanded the prototypical details we see in the RTR cars/locomotives.
All to sadly generic car kits is going the way of the dodo bird...
Really good kits, like the resin kits, have never been "cheap", as these kits are anywhere from $25-$60 a kit. Even the old Silver Streak type kits were always more expensive than BBs. A lot of the RTR cars are actually cheaper than the kits from Sunshine, Westerfield, Tichy, and F&C.
But if I spend just 10 hours building these kits, the "cost" breaks down to less than $4.00 an hour for this entertainment and the enjoyment.
I haven't considered the "shake the box" kits like the old BB, Accurail, etc as
real kits for many, many years. I haven't bought any BB for years except for a couple of the bay window cabooses. I take the SP prototype caboose, and with some cutting, filing, and some alterations to the ends, I can get a reasonable model of a Southern RR bay window from 1941-1950. Total cost of car, paint, decals, time spent on conversion, etc stills comes out to less than $2.00 an hour for the enjoyment and entertainment of building something that not many other folks have, and if they do, it won't look exactly like mine. I have spent mucho time researching my kits and I refuse to have foobee or duplicate numbers on any like cars in my stable. I started doing this long before it became the "thing" to do.
Yes, as you say Larry, the all too generic car kit is dying. I say that
is sad, as how are some the rookies in the hobby gonna learn some of the basic modeling skills needed in this hobby? What will they do when their new RTR cars have a problem that needs some repair work done? Send the car back? Wait 6 weeks or longer for it to be repaired or not, and then returned?